Modeling and Prediction of the end of Life Vehicles Number Distribution in Serbia

Abstract

The impact of various time-defendant factors on the recycling rate of end-of-life vehicles (ELV) in Republic of Serbia was investigated. Statistical distribution of the frequency of the number of ELV in the year of dismantling depending on the year of production of ELV is designed using the two-parameter Weibull distribution function and MATLAB software, based on a real time data. Obtaining the time-dependence of Weibull parameters, a statistical distribution of frequency of the number of ELV in the coming period in Serbia was simulated. These results in combination with amount of materials in the most abundant cars in Serbia were used to simulate the overall amount of materials, which are available for recycling, in the coming period. These results are essential for automotive recycling industry management, particularly for shredders, dismantlers and metal pre-processors.